Fires have been a serious problem in the Amazon for a long time and with a study conducted by US scientists they found a link between the fires and ocean temperatures. A team of US scientists have found that there is a correlation between El Nino patterns in the pacific and fires in the Amazon. Using whats called the ONI or the Oceanic Nino Index they developed a model which correlates inter-annual fire activity with El Nino ocean currents. Also using the AMO or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which performs a similar function in the Atlantic they developed a model which allows them to forecast regional fire severity. The model allows them to forecast the fires with a lead time of three to five months. Studies have been done showing that "high fire" years are associated with an extended dry season and the severe dry season has a direct correlation with warm Pacific and Atlantic temperatures.
These models will provide the scientists with forecasts of fire seasons which will allow angenices and relevant bodies to prepare accordingly. The fires can be managed to conserve biodiversity and carbon stocks in forests and also will provide long term harvesting plans that can be adjusted based on the fire season. These models are also being developed for fire seasons off the west coast of the United States and could be used to predict severe fires in the United States in the future. These models are important for every area of government and may be able to allow us to predict severe fires before they happen.
Source: Kinver, Mark. "Amazon fire season 'linked to ocean temperature'."BBC News 11 Nov 2011, n. pag. Web. 14 Nov. 2011. .
No comments:
Post a Comment