Obama changes schedule for Copenhagen. What does this mean?

A couple of hours ago, the Obama administration announced a startling shift in plans: rather than stop by the Copenhagen climate talks on Dec. 9, Obama will be going on the 18th, the final day of the meeting—a notable increase in commitment (and political exposure) from the administration. The first week of every COP meeting consists of posturing, speeches, protests, and NGO reports. This is when every country makes their pitch for a new agreement. Everything of significance to the treaty will be announced late in the meetings, often on the last day, after a bunch of last-minute negotiations. Coming to Copenhagen at the climax of the talks, specifically to push negotiations “over the top,” as the White House statement says, is a risky move for Obama. "He’s got skin in the game now; he’ll look foolish if he rides in at the last minute and fails to broker an agreement." Obama is not only making a statement for himself and his Presidency, But he is also making a statement for the future of our environment. To obtain a successful treaty in Copenhagen, the United States needs to move forward towards a more sustainable nation. If he’s willing to stick his neck out like this, Obama must be pretty confident that he can get a deal set. There have been signs of momentum for weeks now. The much-discussed deal with China was just one in a raft of commitments from the developing countries, including India and Brazil. Movement from the developing world has undercut one of U.S. conservatives’ principal arguments for inaction. Over 65 world leaders have pledged to attend.

Also, this week, the President discussed the status of the negotiations with Prime Minister Rudd, Chancellor Merkel, President Sarkozy, and Prime Minister Brown and concluded that there appears to be an emerging consensus that a core element of the Copenhagen accord should be to mobilize $10 billion a year by 2012 to support adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, particularly the most vulnerable and least developed countries that could be destabilized by the impacts of climate change.

Overall, the attendance of Obama towards the end of the conference will prove insignificant if they cannot reach an agreement. Previously, the Obama administration had outlined a plan that would let him avoid blame if things went south: he was going to arrive early, leave early, and whatever happened at Copenhagen would stay at Copenhagen. Certainly, it wouldn’t be Obama’s fault, regardless of outcome. But, now Obama will be there, on the last day of the negotiations; It suggests that a “deal” is already in the bag, and Obama’s expecting that he’ll get to bask in the glow of a solid global agreement.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/12/04/obama.copenhagen/index.html